Last week, we warned about volatility. This week, it arrived. Bigger than anyone expected.
The Big Story: The Strait of Hormuz Closes
On Saturday, US and Israeli forces struck Iran. Iran responded by warning all vessels that passage through the Strait of Hormuz is forbidden. Ships are turning back. Tankers are diverting. Maersk has suspended all crossings until further notice. Lloyd's of London has begun cancelling war risk insurance policies for vessels entering the region.
The numbers are already moving: Brent crude jumped approximately 9% to $79.41 when futures opened Sunday evening. US WTI crude rose more than 8% to $72.57. Gold is up 2.33% on safe haven flows. Silver is up 4.38% to approximately $97.87.
And this is just the opening reaction. Goldman Sachs predicts Brent could peak at $110 per barrel, while JP Morgan sees $120 to $130 if disruptions continue.
Tanker traffic through the Strait has effectively come to a halt, with vessels building up outside but nothing passing through. Iran struck three oil tankers on Sunday alone. Greece's shipping ministry has advised all vessels to avoid the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Strait of Hormuz.
The Ayatollah Khamenei has been confirmed dead. Trump has stated combat operations will continue until all US objectives are met, while also signalling openness to talks with Iran. De-escalation remains possible — but nobody is betting on it today.
Energy prices do not stay in the oil market. They bleed into everything. Every $10 rise in oil adds roughly 20 basis points to US consumer price inflation. Beyond oil, roughly a third of globally traded fertiliser volumes also pass through the Strait, meaning food prices could follow energy prices higher.
The currencies in your region will react differently. Malaysia, as a net oil exporter, may actually benefit. Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia are net importers and could face meaningful currency pressure. If your salary, savings, or portfolio are spread across these markets, this week demands attention.
What Else Is Moving
The economic calendar is still packed, regardless of the geopolitics. Monday brings ISM Manufacturing data — the first read on how the US economy entered March. Wednesday brings ADP employment data, an early signal ahead of the big jobs number. Thursday brings initial jobless claims. Friday brings the February Jobs Report, with the employment forecast at just 79,000 — down sharply from 130,000 last month.
A jobs miss on Friday puts the Federal Reserve in an uncomfortable position. Cut rates to support a weakening economy, or hold firm against resurging inflation driven by oil. There is no easy answer here, and markets know it. The combination of a weak jobs number and surging energy costs is exactly the scenario central banks dread most.
The Expat Takeaway
Weeks like this are exactly why financial planning is not just about growth. It is about resilience.
Before you think about portfolio moves, ask yourself one question: if markets stayed irrational for the next six months, could you cover your life without touching your investments?
The standard is six months of living expenses held in cash or a money market account — liquid, accessible, untouched. Not invested. Not exposed. Just there. In a crisis, that buffer is what allows you to make rational decisions instead of forced ones.
Markets will recover. They always do. But the people who get hurt most are the ones who had to sell at the wrong time because they had no other option.
Stay diversified. Stay liquid. Stay informed.
Until next week.
Cip | Bratu Capital
Managing wealth for globally mobile professionals across Southeast Asia.